Three unrelated topics.
Catch up with Brent Donnelly and Macro Alf every week on The Macro Trading Floor. Listen as they discuss themes that are moving markets, highlight important trade ideas, and get to the bottom of what’s going on in macro.
The Spectra Markets Library
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am/FX
Twenty twenty-five
Investment bank outlooks may suffer from extrapolation bias. Tails are the base case.
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am/FX
Secondary Factor
Stocks and VIX don’t usually matter much for USDJPY. But sometimes they do.
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friday speedrun
Friday Speedrun
All In
Everyone is all in on the post-Trump Free Money trades.
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am/FX
EUR consolidates, equities weak
EURUSD is still sell rallies. So are stocks. Need to let some of the froth out.
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Crypto, hegemony, and EURUSD
It makes sense that USDT and BTC inflows would benefit the USD, but the evidence is difficult to parse and inconclusive. Big rejection in EURUSD.
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EURUSD shorts will be less fun
If you caught the EURUSD move via options, this is a good place to square up.
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CPI and Moar Froth
Tomorrow’s CPI has less relevance than usual. Markets are intoxicated.
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Crosswinds and Froth
Day One tariffs are bullish USD, if they happen, but seasonality, yields, policy uncertainty, speculative froth, and rangebound technicals all argue caution.
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friday speedrun
Friday Speedrun
The Second Coming is Priced
Trump has returned but the actual vs. presumed policy mix is yet to be seen.
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am/FX
Promises, promises, and a potential new yen narrative
Is yen repatriation about to pick up?
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am/FX
Policy and Deficits
The market is a bit less sure that yuge deficits are guaranteed.
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The Macro Trading Floor podcast
“am/FX is a must read for everyone who wants to understand global macro trading.”
John Mauldin, Chairman
Mauldin Economics
50 Trades in 50 Weeks
One year of good ideas, dumb mistakes, and timeless trading lessons over a wide range of topics like tactics, strategy, mindset, risk management, and of course the psychology of successful trading. Watch real trade ideas come to life in real time.
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Tap into the wisdom of the most respected names in global markets. Connect theory to practice and advance your career.
