Podcasts

Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework.

Alf and Brent discuss the many risks on the horizon: the Middle-East escalation, China following up (or not) with real economic stimulus, elections and more. Also, a general discussion of how to include (or not include) geopolitics in your macro framework.

The Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired. Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal stimulus. As a result, stocks are soaring and commodities are rallying. But – is it really going to work? And can China really afford such a stimulus? Alf and Brent unpack this in today’s show.

Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within.

Alf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences too? The duo moves on to discuss the aggressive bond market pricing and how to trade around that. Finally, they focus on the US Dollar: will it perform nicely or poorly if we get a recession?

Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or will economic weakness require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus.

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades?

Alf and Brent reflect on the immense volatility hitting markets recently, and specifically on the unwind of carry trades: are we done here or is there more to come? Most importantly, they describe how to design and apply a risk management and position sizing framework so that when everybody panics you don’t need to.

Alf and Brent reflect on the massive bond market rally and the explosive move in the Japanese Yen – what’s next for macro? Plus, a discussion of high- versus low-hit rate trading.

This week, Alf and Brent discuss the brutal equity market sell-off: is it due to macro tectonic shifts, a reassessment of political risks, or an unwind of crowded trades? The duo digs deep trying to connect the dots, and they also discuss a trading framework around these large volatility events.