Podcasts

In this week’s episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ”Trump trades”. Should we take Trump’s agenda at face value and assume it’s negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants?

Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further. Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates.

Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump’s odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios.

Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework.

Alf and Brent discuss the many risks on the horizon: the Middle-East escalation, China following up (or not) with real economic stimulus, elections and more. Also, a general discussion of how to include (or not include) geopolitics in your macro framework.

The Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired. Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal stimulus. As a result, stocks are soaring and commodities are rallying. But – is it really going to work? And can China really afford such a stimulus? Alf and Brent unpack this in today’s show.

Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within.

Alf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences too? The duo moves on to discuss the aggressive bond market pricing and how to trade around that. Finally, they focus on the US Dollar: will it perform nicely or poorly if we get a recession?